Week of March 24–30, 2026
Bitcoin tested $65,700 last week as rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and triggered modest ETF outflows, ending a two-week streak of inflows. Yet the bigger picture tells a different story: despite surging energy costs and mounting recession fears, institutional money keeps flowing back in. Here's what it means for Thai crypto investors this week.
The dominant macro story of the week: oil prices pushed higher, driven by the ongoing Iran conflict. The Iran conflict continues to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies.
Brent crude surged to a peak of $112–$126 per barrel before pulling back, and analysts are warning that price volatility could persist. For crypto, this matters because persistently high oil prices drive inflation, and inflation reduces the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% at its March FOMC meeting, while signaling only one cut for the remainder of 2026.
Late in the week, the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors moved into safe-haven assets. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $296 million after four consecutive weeks of inflows, a short-term signal of caution, not a trend reversal. Toward the end of the week, news that Trump had opened negotiations with Iran added further downward pressure on both oil prices and BTC.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair set to deliver economic remarks on Monday, March 30, and the Iran conflict continuing to drive elevated volatility in energy markets, uncertainty heading into the week remains high. The recommended approach is disciplined short-term trading: look for entries when prices pull back to established support levels, and keep crypto exposure to no more than 20% of total portfolio. The market has not yet found a catalyst strong enough to sustain a new uptrend.
Among altcoins, AI-sector tokens are outperforming the broader market, supported by growing real-world adoption of AI agents. TAO and FET are leading the group. Higher-risk investors may consider speculative entries on price pullbacks. Chasing price after a breakout is not advisable in the current environment.
Despite macro headwinds, crypto technicals remain in a constructive sideways-up pattern. No new lows have been set, a key signal that the underlying bid remains intact.
Current price: 2,219,455 THB / 67,505 USD
BTC is moving in a sideways-up pattern, testing the $65,700 level as macro pressure builds. Price has not set a new low, a key signal that demand is still present. Watch the 2,050,000 THB support closely: a break below that level ($62,300) warrants cutting exposure. For the uptrend to resume, BTC needs a clean break above 2,376,000 THB ($72,300).
Current price: 67,967 THB / 2,060 USD
ETH continues to consolidate around the 68,000 THB range. The 62,700 THB level ($1,900) is a critical support, if this holds, a recovery toward 72,600 THB remains plausible. ETH bulls need a clean break above the 72,600 THB resistance to confirm a renewed uptrend.
Current price: 8.63 THB / 0.262 USD
STG surged over 30% this week, defying the broader market pullback. The rally was fueled by ecosystem spillover from LayerZero's Zero L1 announcement, a new Layer 1 blockchain that positions Stargate as the omnichain liquidity layer. Volume exploded 660% during the breakout. STG is now consolidating near resistance. A hold above 6.60 THB on any pullback would be constructive.
Current price: 76.70 THB / 2.32 USD
M recorded the strongest 7-day gain among Bitazza Thailand pairs this week, surging over 36% from 56.42 to 76.70 THB. The move marks a sharp breakout from prior consolidation. Price has since pulled back toward 76 THB. Key support is at the 56 THB breakout level; a sustained hold above this level would signal the recovery trend remains intact.
The divergence between macro anxiety and institutional behavior is striking. Goldman Sachs has raised U.S. recession odds to 30% (its third upward revision this year), Moody's stands at 48.6%, and crypto fear-and-greed is deep in "extreme fear" territory. Yet Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $1.53 billion in cumulative net inflows over four consecutive weeks, the longest positive streak of 2026.
This week's small ETF outflow likely reflects short-term caution following the oil shock news rather than a change in the underlying institutional thesis.
Strategy this week: Watch Bitcoin's 2,050,000 THB / $62,300 support closely. If that level holds, the sideways-up pattern remains intact and accumulation at current levels is defensible for medium to long-term investors. If it breaks, pause and wait for a clearer bottom. Short-term traders: the macro environment is noisy, manage position sizes carefully.
Remark: The views, information, knowledge, and opinions expressed herein are those of the individuals involved and do not represent the views of Bitazza or its employees. Neither this email nor the content presented constitutes investment advice.